Losing in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon--or in the final eight of any major, for that matter--is hardly a sign that the sky is falling. But for Fed's faithful, including yours truly, it's not so much that Roger fell in straight sets this morning to Tomas Berdych, but it's the way he lost that was most disconcerting.
Berdych, quite simply, overwhelmed the six-time Wimbledon champion with power. The 12th-seeded Czech blasted 51 winners--22 from his forehand side--against just 23 unforced errors to blow Federer right off of Centre Court. We saw a familiar sight just last month in Paris, as big-hitting Robin Soderling repeatedly discouraged Roger with heavy artillery from the baseline to end Federer's French Open run. And last fall, we saw 6'6" Juan Martin del Potro, who owns perhaps the biggest (certainly the most powerful) forehand of them all, overpower Roger in the latter stages of their five-set U.S. Open final, a match del Potro eventually won as Feds wilted under the young Argentine's superior firepower. Thus, in three of the last four majors, Federer, who used to eat power for lunch, has gone down to three of the biggest hitters on tour.
So what happened?
Well, he's getting old for one. The other day, while watching Youtube clips of Federer's 2006 U.S. Open win over Andy Roddick, I couldn't escape noticing how well Roger used to play defense. That's what really separated him from his peers, both historic and contemporary: his uncanny ability to transition from defense to offense in an instant. Indeed, there were multiple times in that match against Roddick when Federer would be in a hopelessly defensive position, only to turn the tables with a single shot. That was the difference then.
Roger's ability to get to every ball effortlessly was also what allowed him to blunt the power of the Roddicks and James Blakes of the world. Even then, the elite counterpunchers (e.g., Rafa Nadal, David Nalbandian, a young Andy Murray), whose games were based on defense and rock-solid consistency, gave Federer trouble every once in a while. But ball mashers like Soderling and Berdych, on the other hand, had no chance. The big boppers played right into Federer's wheelhouse, where the Swiss could absorb the power and dish it right back out. In fact, neither del Potro nor Soderling had ever beaten Roger (a combined 0-17) before their recent Grand Slam breakthroughs. Berdych, too, was winless against Feds until this year, when he saved a match point to beat Roger in Miami in the spring.
But this Roger, as compared to the vintage '04-'07 model, has clearly lost a step on the court. While his serve and forehand still have the requisite pop, he's no longer an elite defensive player, as he can no longer put himself in optimal position on every ball. For instance, I had never seen Federer so out-of-sorts as he seemed today against the younger Berdych. The lanky but powerful Berdych simply hit straight through Federer, who looked every bit of his almost-29 years as he struggled to track down his opponents canon shells.
In his post-match presser, Feds complained of a bum back and sore thigh, which might partially explain his startling lack of mobility throughout the three-hour match. But the writing has been on the wall for months now, as the 16-time major champion has racked up loss after loss to players he once beat without so much as breaking a sweat. Again, this doesn't bode well for Federer or his fans, as the tour's upper echelon is getting increasingly younger and more powerful.
Or maybe the problem is less physical than it is between the ears. After all, what else is left to accomplish for the Swiss maestro, already the all-time leader in major tournament victories and universally hailed-GOAT? Pete Sampras, the erstwhile Greatest Ever, once admitted that it was hard to get up for the Cincinnati's of the world after he had set the previous record for Grand Slam wins. Federer, it seemed, had trouble even getting up for Wimbledon--supposedly the world's preeminent tennis tourney--as he struggled mightily through the first two rounds against virtual nobodies. So maybe it's that Federer is struggling with amotivation in addition to Father Time.
Still, I'm not ready to sound the death knell on Roger's career. After all, we all did this prematurely in 2008, when he was seemingly stuck for good on 12 majors. No, he is not, nor will anyone else ever be, the same player who won nearly every major outside of Paris between 2004 and 2007. He should no longer be expected to win every Grand Slam. But he is definitely a threat--he'll still be one of the top two or three contenders at each Wimbledon and U.S. Open for at least the next two or three years. And if he reaches the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open in September, he would once again accomplish something the great Pete Sampras only did once in his career: advancing to the quarterfinals or better of every Grand Slam in a single year.
With that being said, today's loss--Federer's first pre-final loss at Wimbledon since 2002--unquestionably signals the end of a glorious era in tennis history. One where The Mighty Fed ruled over his kingdom with an iron fist.
Forgive me if I yearn for the halcyon days from time to time.
-TBY
Photo Credit: Getty Images
